4th down and 2-point decisions
Every 4th down and every try after a touchdown this season, graded against Ben Baldwin's nfl4th model (MIT license), reproduced exactly. It is nfl4th's recommendation, not this site's model, and it is not adjusted for the teams playing. Try any situation in the calculator.
nfl4th leans toward going for it. It recommends going on 41.8% of this season's 1,206 evaluated 4th downs; coaches went on 16.3%.
So most flagged decisions are kicks the model would have gone for: 105 of 112 (93.8%). They are also the plays where the model is least certain: 87.5% had nfl4th's top two options within 5 points of win probability.
Costliest mistakes
The 50 costliest of 112 mistakes, 4th downs and tries together.
| Rk | Wk | Team | Coach | Type | Situation | Team did | nfl4th's recommendation | Each option's WP | WP lost | Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | BAL | Jesse Minter | 4th down | 4th and 2 at own 46, Q4 2:08, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 53.3%, Punt 41.3% | 12.0 | BAL at CLE |
| 2 | 1 | DET | Dan Campbell | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 44, Q4 0:37, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 67.5%, Punt 56.9% | 10.7 | NO at DET |
| 3 | 2 | IND | Shane Steichen | 4th down | 4th and 4 at own 49, Q4 0:34, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 43.6%, FG 22.1%, Punt 35.2% | 8.4 | IND at KC |
| 4 | 6 | JAX | Liam Coen | 4th down | 4th and 4 at HOU 42, Q4 2:00, down 3 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 34.3%, FG 26.5%, Punt 22.6% | 7.8 | HOU at JAX |
| 5 | 2 | HOU | DeMeco Ryans | 4th down | 4th and 1 at CIN 40, Q3 7:33, down 7 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 36.8%, FG 29.6%, Punt 27.2% | 7.3 | CIN at HOU |
| 6 | 2 | LAC | Jim Harbaugh | 4th down | 4th and 2 at own 28, Q4 8:26, down 3 | Punt | Go for it | Go 39.7%, Punt 32.6% | 7.2 | LV at LAC |
| 7 | 2 | LV | Klint Kubliak | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 26, Q4 6:54, up 3 | Punt | Go for it | Go 58.2%, Punt 51.1% | 7.1 | LV at LAC |
| 8 | 3 | DEN | Sean Payton | 4th down | 4th and 2 at own 38, Q4 7:10, down 3 | Punt | Go for it | Go 34.9%, Punt 28.0% | 6.9 | LAR at DEN |
| 9 | 3 | BAL | Jesse Minter | 4th down | 4th and 5 at own 45, Q4 7:40, down 4 | Punt | Go for it | Go 33.9%, Punt 27.1% | 6.8 | BAL at DAL |
| 10 | 1 | ARI | Jonathan Gannon | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 40, Q4 14:04, up 2 | Punt | Go for it | Go 51.6%, Punt 45.2% | 6.3 | ARI at LAC |
| 11 | 2 | BAL | Jesse Minter | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 37, Q4 8:14, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 64.1%, Punt 58.1% | 6.0 | NO at BAL |
| 12 | 5 | DEN | Sean Payton | 4th down | 4th and goal at LAC 1, Q4 5:10, tied | Field goal | Go for it | Go 75.7%, FG 70.0% | 5.7 | DEN at LAC |
| 13 | 3 | CIN | Zac Taylor | 4th down | 4th and 2 at own 49, Q4 7:46, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 58.7%, FG 44.1%, Punt 53.3% | 5.4 | CIN at PIT |
| 14 | 4 | ARI | Jonathan Gannon | 4th down | 4th and 2 at own 11, Q4 4:53, down 3 | Punt | Go for it | Go 25.2%, Punt 20.0% | 5.2 | ARI at NYG |
| 15 | 4 | WAS | Dan Quinn | 4th down | 4th and 2 at IND 13, Q1 13:01, tied | Field goal | Go for it | Go 40.2%, FG 35.3% | 5.0 | IND at WAS |
| 16 | 3 | PHI | Nick Sirianni | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 49, Q3 3:30, down 13 | Punt | Go for it | Go 16.2%, FG 9.1%, Punt 11.5% | 4.7 | PHI at CHI |
| 17 | 2 | MIN | Kevin O'Connell | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 21, Q4 13:04, up 3 | Punt | Go for it | Go 56.4%, Punt 51.8% | 4.6 | MIN at CHI |
| 18 | 2 | NYJ | Aaron Glenn | 4th down | 4th and 1 at GB 9, Q4 11:08, up 7 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 85.9%, FG 81.5% | 4.5 | GB at NYJ |
| 19 | 1 | DAL | Brian Schottenheimer | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 37, Q1 13:18, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 60.6%, Punt 56.1% | 4.4 | DAL at NYG |
| 19 | 3 | SEA | Mike Macdonald | Try | After a TD, down 3, Q4 2:51 | Extra point | Go for 2 | XP 29.5%, 2 pt 33.9% | 4.4 | SEA at WAS |
| 21 | 4 | IND | Shane Steichen | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 37, Q1 0:27, down 6 | Punt | Go for it | Go 46.3%, Punt 42.2% | 4.1 | IND at WAS |
| 22 | 2 | DEN | Sean Payton | 4th down | 4th and goal at JAX 2, Q2 7:03, down 7 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 38.9%, FG 34.8% | 4.0 | JAX at DEN |
| 22 | 4 | JAX | Liam Coen | 4th down | 4th and 3 at CIN 48, Q4 1:56, up 5 | Punt | Go for it | Go 89.7%, FG 77.9%, Punt 85.8% | 4.0 | JAX at CIN |
| 22 | 5 | BAL | Jesse Minter | 4th down | 4th and 4 at own 38, Q4 6:30, down 5 | Punt | Go for it | Go 19.9%, Punt 15.9% | 4.0 | BAL at ATL |
| 22 | 7 | NE | Mike Vrabel | 4th down | 4th and 7 at own 46, Q4 6:28, down 6 | Punt | Go for it | Go 16.7%, Punt 12.7% | 4.0 | NE at CHI |
| 26 | 5 | SF | Kyle Shanahan | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 38, Q1 14:04, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 40.7%, Punt 36.9% | 3.9 | SF at SEA |
| 27 | 1 | TEN | Robert Saleh | 4th down | 4th and 4 at NYJ 45, Q3 13:09, down 7 | Punt | Go for it | Go 31.2%, FG 25.1%, Punt 27.4% | 3.7 | NYJ at TEN |
| 27 | 6 | DAL | Brian Schottenheimer | 4th down | 4th and 4 at GB 47, Q1 11:20, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 56.5%, FG 48.9%, Punt 52.8% | 3.7 | DAL at GB |
| 29 | 4 | NO | Kellen Moore | 4th down | 4th and 3 at ATL 8, Q3 7:40, down 17 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 11.3%, FG 7.7% | 3.6 | ATL at NO |
| 30 | 1 | SEA | Mike Macdonald | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 30, Q1 4:42, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 54.4%, Punt 50.8% | 3.5 | NE at SEA |
| 30 | 4 | DEN | Sean Payton | 4th down | 4th and 2 at SF 22, Q4 14:12, down 7 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 24.5%, FG 21.0% | 3.5 | DEN at SF |
| 30 | 4 | DET | Dan Campbell | 4th down | 4th and 6 at CAR 8, Q3 6:24, down 6 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 47.0%, FG 43.4% | 3.5 | DET at CAR |
| 30 | 5 | JAX | Liam Coen | 4th down | 4th and 2 at own 31, Q4 1:46, up 2 | Punt | Go for it | Go 72.4%, Punt 68.9% | 3.5 | PHI at JAX |
| 30 | 6 | KC | Andy Reid | 4th down | 4th and 2 at LAC 26, Q1 11:25, tied | Field goal | Go for it | Go 75.5%, FG 72.0% | 3.5 | LAC at KC |
| 35 | 3 | CAR | Dave Canales | 4th down | 4th and 2 at CLE 22, Q3 13:26, down 7 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 41.5%, FG 38.1% | 3.4 | CAR at CLE |
| 36 | 3 | DAL | Brian Schottenheimer | 4th down | 4th and 6 at BAL 41, Q3 6:07, down 4 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 28.6%, FG 25.3%, Punt 24.8% | 3.3 | BAL at DAL |
| 36 | 4 | ARI | Jonathan Gannon | 4th down | 4th and 7 at own 45, Q4 9:34, down 3 | Punt | Go for it | Go 35.0%, Punt 31.7% | 3.3 | ARI at NYG |
| 36 | 5 | NYG | John Harbaugh | Try | After a TD, down 1, Q4 1:43 | Extra point | Go for 2 | XP 30.4%, 2 pt 33.7% | 3.3 | NYG at WAS |
| 39 | 2 | IND | Shane Steichen | 4th down | 4th and 4 at own 48, Q3 5:48, down 4 | Punt | Go for it | Go 25.4%, FG 17.1%, Punt 22.1% | 3.2 | IND at KC |
| 39 | 4 | CIN | Zac Taylor | 4th down | 4th and 1 at own 44, Q1 8:04, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 59.8%, Punt 56.6% | 3.2 | JAX at CIN |
| 39 | 6 | GB | Matt LaFleur | 4th down | 4th and goal at DAL 2, Q2 6:01, up 7 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 75.4%, FG 72.2% | 3.2 | DAL at GB |
| 42 | 1 | MIN | Kevin O'Connell | 4th down | 4th and 5 at GB 20, Q1 1:42, down 9 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 28.8%, FG 25.6% | 3.1 | GB at MIN |
| 42 | 4 | DEN | Sean Payton | 4th down | 4th and 2 at own 45, Q3 10:52, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 46.3%, Punt 43.2% | 3.1 | DEN at SF |
| 42 | 4 | GB | Matt LaFleur | 4th down | 4th and 2 at TB 44, Q1 10:27, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 64.1%, FG 59.5%, Punt 61.0% | 3.1 | GB at TB |
| 42 | 4 | KC | Andy Reid | 4th down | 4th and 3 at LV 45, Q2 11:28, tied | Punt | Go for it | Go 64.7%, FG 62.2%, Punt 61.6% | 3.1 | KC at LV |
| 42 | 4 | PIT | Mike McCarthy | 4th down | 4th and 5 at own 37, Q4 5:40, down 8 | Punt | Go for it | Go 12.0%, Punt 8.9% | 3.1 | PIT at CLE |
| 47 | 5 | LAC | Jim Harbaugh | 4th down | 4th and 2 at own 48, Q1 4:12, down 7 | Punt | Go for it | Go 23.9%, FG 16.6%, Punt 20.9% | 3.0 | DEN at LAC |
| 48 | 1 | TEN | Robert Saleh | 4th down | 4th and 3 at NYJ 49, Q2 1:18, down 7 | Punt | Go for it | Go 31.9%, FG 24.7%, Punt 29.0% | 2.9 | NYJ at TEN |
| 48 | 2 | DEN | Sean Payton | 4th down | 4th and 5 at JAX 27, Q3 5:02, down 10 | Field goal | Go for it | Go 25.6%, FG 22.7% | 2.9 | JAX at DEN |
| 48 | 2 | LAC | Jim Harbaugh | 4th down | 4th and 3 at LV 40, Q1 11:44, tied | Field goal | Go for it | Go 71.1%, FG 68.2%, Punt 69.2% | 2.9 | LV at LAC |
WP lost is nfl4th's recommendation's win probability minus the team's choice's, in points, at the snap. Each option's WP is the team's chance to win after it: go for it, field goal (FG), punt; for a try, the extra point (XP) or going for 2, with the score counting the touchdown. A punt or field goal after the offense's delay of game is graded at the spot before it. The game links to its win probability chart. Hover a situation for the play as nflverse describes it.