4th down calculator
Ben Baldwin's nfl4th model, reproduced exactly and run in your browser. It is not adjusted for the teams playing yet. More on the model.
Game state after the touchdown
Kick or go for 2
Loading the model, a one-time download of about 2.6 MB.
Win probability is the scoring team's chance to win the game after each choice. The extra point is nfl4th's league-average 33 yard kick.
About the model
This is Ben Baldwin's nfl4th, reproduced exactly: a port of its code (commit ecb7293) and trained models that runs in your browser. On 3,907 test situations, 2,979 4th downs and 928 tries, its numbers match the reference port of nfl4th to within 0.00000006 of win probability. How it was ported and checked.
It is not adjusted for the teams playing yet. Apart from the pregame spread and total, every team is treated alike. Every 4th down and try this season is graded against it.
nfl4th and the nflfastR models it builds on are by Ben Baldwin and Sebastian Carl, both released under the MIT license (nfl4th's, nflfastR's).