Week 1 recap, 2026
Every game of the week, most exciting first. The scoreboard has them in kickoff order. Excitement is how far win probability swung over the game, play by play, in either direction.
Ranked by excitement
| Rank | Game | Label | Excitement | Winner's low | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO 30 at DET 31 OT | Thriller | 7.31 | 10.2% | Win probability |
| 2 | BUF 36 at HOU 31 | Shootout | 6.63 | 25.9% | Win probability |
| 3 | NE 10 at SEA 13 | 5.45 | 16.8% | Win probability | |
| 4 | ATL 13 at PIT 20 | 5.37 | 36.3% | Win probability | |
| 5 | CHI 59 at CAR 37 | 4.65 | 21.8% | Win probability | |
| 6 | WAS 22 at PHI 24 | 4.48 | 44.2% | Win probability | |
| 7 | GB 22 at MIN 39 | Comeback | 4.28 | 9.2% | Win probability |
| 8 | ARI 26 at LAC 14 | 3.81 | 31.2% | Win probability | |
| 9 | SF 27 vs LAR 7 | 2.95 | 26.5% | Win probability | |
| 10 | DAL 20 at NYG 28 | 2.84 | 55.4% | Win probability | |
| 11 | NYJ 23 at TEN 10 | 2.67 | 43.3% | Win probability | |
| 12 | TB 27 at CIN 33 | 2.57 | 45.0% | Win probability | |
| 13 | MIA 13 at LV 27 | 2.55 | 52.0% | Win probability | |
| 14 | DEN 10 at KC 31 | 2.39 | 55.1% | Win probability | |
| 15 | BAL 41 at IND 23 | 2.23 | 30.2% | Win probability | |
| 16 | CLE 10 at JAX 34 | 1.01 | 46.7% | Win probability |
How games are ranked
Excitement adds up every change in win probability, play by play, in either direction. A game that swung back and forth scores high; one decided early scores low. Overtime games are scaled to 60 minutes, so extra plays do not count as extra excitement.
The winner's low point is the smallest chance the eventual winner had at any moment.
- Comeback: the winner was down to a 10% chance or less.
- Thriller: excitement of 6.88 or more, the top 5% of games from 2019 to 2025.
- Shootout: 65 or more points, decided by 8 or fewer.
A game gets the first label it qualifies for. Win probability is nflfastR's, as published in nflverse play-by-play.