Week 3 recap, 2026
Every game of the week, most exciting first. The scoreboard has them in kickoff order. Excitement is how far win probability swung over the game, play by play, in either direction.
Ranked by excitement
| Rank | Game | Label | Excitement | Winner's low | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL 34 vs DAL 31 | Thriller | 7.00 | 18.8% | Win probability |
| 2 | CAR 18 at CLE 21 | 6.83 | 22.2% | Win probability | |
| 3 | CIN 27 at PIT 30 | 6.65 | 32.9% | Win probability | |
| 4 | LAR 26 at DEN 30 | Comeback | 6.51 | 8.9% | Win probability |
| 5 | HOU 17 at IND 19 | 5.53 | 46.0% | Win probability | |
| 6 | NYJ 24 at DET 31 | 5.06 | 44.9% | Win probability | |
| 7 | SEA 31 at WAS 33 | 4.99 | 51.3% | Win probability | |
| 8 | LV 35 at NO 27 | 4.98 | 12.9% | Win probability | |
| 9 | LAC 16 at BUF 24 | 4.92 | 17.0% | Win probability | |
| 10 | MIN 23 at TB 16 | 4.90 | 36.4% | Win probability | |
| 11 | KC 24 at MIA 10 | 3.98 | 43.3% | Win probability | |
| 12 | TEN 7 at NYG 12 | 3.74 | 51.0% | Win probability | |
| 13 | ARI 30 at SF 36 | Shootout | 3.46 | 47.0% | Win probability |
| 14 | ATL 35 at GB 14 | 2.83 | 21.4% | Win probability | |
| 15 | PHI 7 at CHI 27 | 2.73 | 54.6% | Win probability | |
| 16 | NE 6 at JAX 35 | 2.58 | 40.2% | Win probability |
How games are ranked
Excitement adds up every change in win probability, play by play, in either direction. A game that swung back and forth scores high; one decided early scores low. Overtime games are scaled to 60 minutes, so extra plays do not count as extra excitement.
The winner's low point is the smallest chance the eventual winner had at any moment.
- Comeback: the winner was down to a 10% chance or less.
- Thriller: excitement of 6.88 or more, the top 5% of games from 2019 to 2025.
- Shootout: 65 or more points, decided by 8 or fewer.
A game gets the first label it qualifies for. Win probability is nflfastR's, as published in nflverse play-by-play.