Week 5 recap, 2026
Every game of the week, most exciting first. The scoreboard has them in kickoff order. Excitement is how far win probability swung over the game, play by play, in either direction.
Ranked by excitement
| Rank | Game | Label | Excitement | Winner's low | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI 17 vs JAX 19 | Thriller | 9.17 | 24.6% | Win probability |
| 2 | NYG 27 at WAS 27 OT | Thriller | 7.42 | Tie | Win probability |
| 3 | BUF 37 at LAR 34 OT | Thriller | 7.39 | 22.4% | Win probability |
| 4 | CLE 12 at NYJ 17 | Thriller | 6.98 | 20.5% | Win probability |
| 5 | BAL 30 at ATL 23 OT | Comeback | 6.51 | 5.3% | Win probability |
| 6 | SF 32 at SEA 29 | 6.43 | 24.5% | Win probability | |
| 7 | DEN 23 at LAC 17 | 5.14 | 13.4% | Win probability | |
| 8 | IND 22 at PIT 34 | 4.42 | 43.2% | Win probability | |
| 9 | MIN 23 at NO 13 | 4.39 | 24.4% | Win probability | |
| 10 | TB 24 at DAL 16 | 4.05 | 29.2% | Win probability | |
| 11 | CIN 31 at MIA 24 | 2.91 | 39.6% | Win probability | |
| 12 | DET 45 at ARI 21 | 2.45 | 18.6% | Win probability | |
| 13 | HOU 26 at TEN 3 | 2.27 | 32.9% | Win probability | |
| 14 | LV 17 at NE 45 | 2.24 | 55.1% | Win probability | |
| 15 | CHI 7 at GB 31 | 1.81 | 53.8% | Win probability |
How games are ranked
Excitement adds up every change in win probability, play by play, in either direction. A game that swung back and forth scores high; one decided early scores low. Overtime games are scaled to 60 minutes, so extra plays do not count as extra excitement.
The winner's low point is the smallest chance the eventual winner had at any moment.
- Comeback: the winner was down to a 10% chance or less.
- Thriller: excitement of 6.88 or more, the top 5% of games from 2019 to 2025.
- Shootout: 65 or more points, decided by 8 or fewer.
A game gets the first label it qualifies for. Win probability is nflfastR's, as published in nflverse play-by-play.