Week 4 recap, 2026
Every game of the week, most exciting first. The scoreboard has them in kickoff order. Excitement is how far win probability swung over the game, play by play, in either direction.
Ranked by excitement
| Rank | Game | Label | Excitement | Winner's low | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL 34 at HOU 30 | 6.77 | 17.7% | Win probability | |
| 2 | KC 30 at LV 27 | 6.74 | 24.3% | Win probability | |
| 3 | ARI 24 at NYG 36 | 5.94 | 23.7% | Win probability | |
| 4 | NE 29 at BUF 26 | 5.81 | 19.3% | Win probability | |
| 5 | GB 17 at TB 14 | 5.75 | 39.9% | Win probability | |
| 6 | JAX 22 at CIN 17 | 5.73 | 35.4% | Win probability | |
| 7 | LAR 24 at PHI 20 | Comeback | 4.91 | 3.8% | Win probability |
| 8 | DET 26 at CAR 32 | 4.86 | 46.7% | Win probability | |
| 9 | PIT 24 at CLE 27 | 4.52 | 27.8% | Win probability | |
| 10 | DEN 14 at SF 24 | 4.35 | 37.4% | Win probability | |
| 11 | IND 30 vs WAS 13 | 3.51 | 20.8% | Win probability | |
| 12 | MIA 10 at MIN 15 | 3.47 | 49.7% | Win probability | |
| 13 | LAC 23 at SEA 30 | 3.07 | 45.2% | Win probability | |
| 14 | NYJ 12 at CHI 23 | 2.96 | 51.1% | Win probability | |
| 15 | TEN 18 at BAL 24 | 2.29 | 52.0% | Win probability | |
| 16 | ATL 45 at NO 24 | 2.14 | 42.2% | Win probability |
How games are ranked
Excitement adds up every change in win probability, play by play, in either direction. A game that swung back and forth scores high; one decided early scores low. Overtime games are scaled to 60 minutes, so extra plays do not count as extra excitement.
The winner's low point is the smallest chance the eventual winner had at any moment.
- Comeback: the winner was down to a 10% chance or less.
- Thriller: excitement of 6.88 or more, the top 5% of games from 2019 to 2025.
- Shootout: 65 or more points, decided by 8 or fewer.
A game gets the first label it qualifies for. Win probability is nflfastR's, as published in nflverse play-by-play.